Drivers of Fragility: What Makes States Fragile?

This working paper, part of a series prepared by the Poverty Reduction in Difficult Environments (PRDE) team in the Department for International Development (DFID)'s Policy Division, analyses what factors are associated with the condition of fragility in states. It introduces a set of common and interrelated factors that affect - either causing or sustaining - fragility including: weak political institutions, economic decline, economic poverty, and violent conflict, as well as a state's geography and history and regional influences. The analysis includes policy implications and operational recommendations for DFID.

According to the Executive Summary: "Weak institutions are the central driver of state fragility....The key to understanding fragility is understanding where weaknesses exist in a state's institutions. This relates to the incentives governing the behaviour of social groups, particularly those with political power. Academic research has shown that power selection mechanisms, control on a state's executive, and public participation in political processes are the three main components that explain institutional weakness.... The evidence suggests some important policy implications for DFID and other donors. Foremost is the need to support political institutions into the long term, beyond technical assistance and beyond short-term democracy and electoral interventions. There needs to be a broader understanding of institutional support than has been recognised up until now."

Since weak political institutions can result in a fragile state, the document looks to what makes political institutions - those that can effectively constrain abuse of power by those in political office  - stronger (not repressive, but well-functioning). As stated here, the most authoritative governments are those that are legitimate in the eyes of citizens because they are in some way accountable and responsive to the people they represent. Three key elements cited here that lead to legitimacy in the eyes of citizens are: the method of selecting and replacing the government leaders; the limits on executive power by holding the office accountable; and the degree of involvement of the public in the political process.

"Free and fair elections for a President or Prime Minister are not enough to ensure stability....The nature of the election process ... is shown to be much less important for stability than how far institutions are constrained to regulate access, authority and political competition." If significant proportions of a population are marginalised or excluded from wider participation in governance processes, states can be destabilised through the effects of protest of lack of representation. Attention to wider, legitimate participation is important when external actors influence the power balances of states.

Factors associated with fragility, in which communication could have bearing, include the following:

1. Evidence suggests that better-educated populations tend to sustain stability, independent of economic development.
   
2. Weakness in infrastructure is exacerbated by terrain - mountainous regions are more prone to conflict due to social dissatisfaction in hard-to-reach territories.
   
3. Natural resources - Violence in fragile states is often triggered by competition for resources, such as land or water, sparked by the political manipulation of groups competing for power (including control of natural resource supply).
4. Violent conflict - Violent conflict is the ultimate manifestation of a breakdown in communication and negotiation between conflicting groups, and, in itself, a self-reinforcing process that contributes to a lack of stability.
5. Transitions - Where state institutions are in transition, having previously provided for the population and having become unable to do so, public discontent may destabilise a state. There is evidence that fragility peaks around the second election after the opening up of political participation because resentment can build against new actors using the system to have their demands met.
6. External shocks - Particularly where there is minimal public participation and there are marked social divisions or market failure in the region, external changes may trigger instability within a state.
7. Geography, climate, and disease - Adversity that threatens self-sufficiency and well-being can threaten both individuals and the ability of state institutions to provide stability and infrastructure.
8. The international system - "[T]here is growing recognition that some aspects of the current international response to weak states play no part in reversing fragility and may indeed contribute to it..." including:
   • badly designed attempts to carry out democratisation and the withdrawal of support and funding before institutions have been adequately built up; and
     
   • continued inadequacy and fragmentation of the international response; the destabilising impact that unreliable funding streams can have.

Operational recommendations include:

• "Weak institutions need to be better tackled." Address institution building more strategically by promoting good governance and improving administrative capacity across a state's civil service.
  
• "Elections are the start of a wider process." Any electoral funding should be embedded in a wider governance or state-building programme.
  
• "Focus on the two stabilising aspects of regimes." The first is subordination or control over the executive's authority, and the second is managing and establishing effective political competition. Possible work might include capacity building support to civil society and media organisations in advocacy, or monitoring and advice through technical support to the civil service.
  
• Continue to provide support to institutions designed to control executive power, including in the justice and police sectors, anti-corruption, and decentralisation.
  
• In transition political systems, if support is provided at the political level in the form of electoral assistance or political party advice, it should be ensured that technical assistance, either training or advisory, should also be provided both to civil service departments (at all levels) and to civil society groups.
  
• Effective states also need 'inclusive institutions' that respect the interests of the wider population and are more likely to benefit the economically poor. In fragile states, a basic level of commitment to poverty reduction is to provide broad-based services to the population without institutionalised discrimination directed at particular groups.
  
• "Poverty reduction must be promoted at the same time as institutional reform....Activities might include the promotion of micro-credit enterprise or small-scale agricultural support, where possible led by partner government agencies. Monitoring and evaluation should be institutionalised within programmes to ensure continuing effectiveness."
  
• Violent conflict: Prevention and peacebuilding activities should be seen in a broader context than simple stabilisation.
  
• "External organisations can also be a positive force for good. Many of the triggers of and solutions to fragility lie beyond the boundaries of a country." Regional relationships - and institutions - are important. Many initiatives straddle both the international and regional levels of response.